Letter from the Publisher
July 2009
What a dramatic month June 2009 has turned out to be! First we had the parliamentary elections in Lebanon on June 7th, where the pro-Western 16th March coalition led by Saad Hariri-led alliance managed to have a clear win despite fears that the Hezbollah led alliance may win over more seats this time and have a majority in the parliament. The rival leaders have tried to defuse tensions and Mr. Hariri has had a rare meeting with Hassan Nasrallah. Since then, Lebanon's President Michel Suleiman has appointed Mr. Hariri to become the next prime minister to lead the new government, and a majority of the parliament has accepted him. The re-elected speaker of the parliament, Mr. Nabih Berri who is a Hezbollah ally, has also endorsed Hariri but his 13 member bloc has stressed that they will not join the next government "unless it is a consensus government that can ensure real participation" in decision making. The Hezbollah led alliance may still hold on to their veto power in the cabinet, but what is important is that all sides want a unity government that can move the country out of its stalemate to a brighter future.
Then on June 12th the Islamic Republic of Iran held its tenth presidential elections, where its disputed result and the ensuing mass protests dominated all major news organizations worldwide for over two weeks. We have extensive coverage and analysis in this issue of the Iranian election. For the moment it looks like that the hard-line incumbent President Ahmadinejad will be staying on for four more years since the Guardian Council- Iran's top electoral body- has proclaimed the vote as one of the "healthiest" since the Islamic revolution and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled out a revote. The demonstrations have petered out now amid an intensifying security crackdown by the authorities, and the main defeated opposition leader Mir Hosein Mousavi is almost invisible and has difficulty contacting his supporters.
The battle on the streets may be over, but there is a grander struggle now between moderate clerics and conservative ones behind the scenes which may be as crucial for Iran's future. This is between the Supreme Leader Mr. Khamenei and Mr. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is often regarded as the Islamic Republic's second-most powerful man. The reformists may have lost this battle now on the surface, but in the longer term the Iranian people's massive expression for more freedom will not diminish but increase as time goes on. Furthermore, the infighting among the leaders has undermined the legitimacy of the Velayat Faqih, and the regime will undoubtedly have to change or become more authoritarian.
As far as the West is concerned, they have to tread very carefully in response to Iran's crisis. Iranians have an understandably hostile attitude to foreign interference given the long history of outside meddling in their country. Therefore it has been wise for western leaders to condemn human rights abuses and possible electoral fraud, but not to take any sides on what is truly an internal affair. Moreover the security and business interests of the west come first, and that means that whoever ends up running Iran, the West will have to talk to its leaders about its nuclear program and its influence in Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon, and even Afghanistan. Let us hope for an end to violence, a more compromising attitude by Iran's leadership, and to a peaceful outcome for the region.
