The five permanent member of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, the so called five+1 group of nations, offered the Islamic Republic of Iran a new package of incentives and proposals last month as part of their ongoing effort to make Iran freeze its uranium enrichment program. Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief made a trip to Tehran to discuss these proposals with the authorities there. This package included a letter signed by all the foreign ministers of the five+1 group including Condoleezza Rice of the United States, in which there were assurances of normalization of Iran's relations with the West and of Iran joining the international community as a responsible member. In addition they offered Iran a place in the regional security pact of the Persian Gulf area as a prominent member to reflect the country's strategic position. Other aspects of the proposals were the opportunity for the Islamic Republic to obtain new civilian aircraft and parts, lifting the ban on investment in the energy and oil industry, and assistance in joining the World Trade Organization.
By far, this was the best package of incentives that the Western nations have offered Iran over the past few years of this ongoing crisis. But, it seems that for the moment these are not enough to satisfy Iran's requirements. What the Islamic Republic wants is a full guarantee from the United States that it would not attack Iran and that it would not try to bring about regime change through other means, such as by supporting opposition groups. The regime in Tehran basically wants the West and especially the United States to close its eyes and not intervene in the internal affairs of the country, including human rights abuses. And as we know well from history, the West will not give such a broad guarantee to any country. Therefore it seems we are back to square one on the nuclear impasse. The only hopeful sign is that Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister, has recently stated that they would like more time to study the proposals in depth.
As we have mentioned before in this column, it is in Iran's best interest to freeze its enrichment program for the time being and return to the negotiating table and wait for a new US administration to take office in 2009. The European Union has already toughened its stance against Iran by announcing the freezing of the assets of the Bank Melli Iran, the state's central bank and blacklisting more officials from travel. Moreover, every attempt is being made to isolate the Islamic Republic further in the region. Israel is negotiating indirectly with Syria-via Turkey over the return of the Golan Heights, and also with Hezbollah–via Germany- over prisoner exchange. It is also trying to negotiate with Hamas via Egypt. Therefore it seems that if the Islamic Republic of Iran loses this latest opportunity to negotiate itself out of this crisis, it may find itself isolated, encircled, and under attack, with no friends in the world to rely on