Letter from the Publisher
May 2009
The Islamic Republic of Iran is sending mixes messages to the administration of President Obama, while it should be focusing on using this genuine opportunity for rapprochement with the United States. There may not be another such president who truly believes in peace and dialogue in the White House next time. Although the Islamic Republic has recently said it was ready for a new beginning in relations with the United States after three decades of adversity, on the other hand Tehran has sentenced an Iranian-American journalist to eight years in prison for spying and President Ahmadinejad fervently denounced Israel as a racist at a United Nations conference on racism. He should have tried to behave more like President Chavez of Venezuela who used his opportunity at the Latin American Conference to shake hands with President Obama and present him with a book, which helped break the ice and begin a thaw in the relations of the two countries.
These mixed political signals are evidence of a power struggle within the ruling class between those who want to move closer to Washington and those resisting this change. All this is complicated by the tenth presidential elections in the Islamic Republic to be held on June 12th. Both domestic and international issues will play strong roles in this decisive election that will determine the agenda and direction of the country for the next four years. President Ahmadinejad is running for another term, and his strongest opponent in the reformist camp is Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister. Recently a moderate conservative who led Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, Mohsen Rezaei, became the latest challenger to enter the presidential race. He is believed to have the support of Hashemi Rafsanjani, and could take votes away from Ahmadinejad. This would benefit the reformists who favor improving ties with the West and see a chance for victory in June. However, they need to unify their ranks to increase their chances of unseating Ahmadinejad, because there is Mahdi Karoubi- the former speaker of parliament- on the reformists' ticket as well.
Another recent foreign policy issue plaguing Iran are the deteriorating relations between Cairo and Tehran since Egypt accused a Hezbollah cell of plotting attacks in the country. The Egyptian foreign ministry summoned Mohammad Rajabi, the head of Iran's special interest office there, to express Cairo's indignation at Iranian officials' criticism of the case against 49 suspects accused of belonging to Hezbollah and of panning attacks. Egypt's Foreign Minister, Ahmed Abul Gheit, has said that Tehran is using Hezbollah to gain a foothold in the most populous Arab country. Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah has confirmed that one of those arrested was a an agent of the group and tasked with smuggling arms to Palestinians in Gaza, but he denied that the cell, which he said consisted of only ten members, had planned attacks in Egypt itself.
What a contrast this scenario is to the days of President Khatami, when he shook hands with President Mubarak, and the two countries were on a path to restoring diplomatic relations. Although there is potential for change in Iran, especially if the reformists win in the June elections, the authority of the Iranian president is constrained when it comes to vital national security issues, and whatever progress is made over the nuclear issue, regional and international relations, will undoubtedly be protracted and frustrating. Let us hope for change for the better, instead of more of the same.
