Letter from the Publisher

January 2009

We would like to begin by wishing all Muslims a very happy and blissful Eid Al-Azha which marked the end of the annual Hai this year.  The authorities in Saudi Arabia must be commended in providing and safe and secure environment and facilities to nearly 3 million pilgrims, and this years pilgrimage which has been incident free thank God.  We would also like to wish a very Happy New Year 2009 to all and hope that is a year that will bring much needed peace and prosperity to the world at large.

The impasse over the Iranian nuclear program remains a major issue for the West and the Middle East region as we go into 2009.  In an unprecedented development, the P5+1 group members met with representatives of several Arab states in mid December in New York at the invitation of the United States and agreed to discuss Iran's nuclear issue on a regular basis.  Oman and Qatar boycotted the meeting on Persian Gulf stability to which Tehran was not invited.  All there expressed their concern about Iran's nuclear policies and its regional ambitions.  Of particular concern to the Arab countries is what agreement the Unites States might reach with a possible nuclear Iran in the future and the effects on the balance of power in the region.  Should Iran not cooperate and continue expansion of its enrichment program, it will definitely face further sanctions and international pressure. 

The other main issue impacting the Middle East is the sinking price of oil due to loss of demand in the world markets.  This is happening despite the announcement by OPEC of a reduction of 2.5 million barrels of production at the cartel's December meeting in Algeria.  This is increasing pressure on the economies of the oil producers, especially Iran who has high costs now without the planned income.  Saudi Arabia and the UAE are faring better, but even Saudi Arabia may have a budget deficit in 2009 if oil prices go much lower.

On the political front in the Islamic Republic, there some glimpse of hope that the next elections may take the country in a new direction.  President Ahmadinejad has definitely decided to run for a second term.  There are signs however that some of the conservatives are losing their trust in Ahmadinejad, and that some other more pragmatic conservative candidates may come forward, such as former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, who is currently special advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei.  Another moderate would be Mr. Nateq Nouri, former speaker of parliament.  The idea is to create a unity government with a coalition made up of moderate conservatives and reformists to stand up to the Principalists parties.

The region and the world is now awaiting the arrival of the new US administration of President elect Barack Obama to see what direction will its policy towards Iran take.  Many, including Ms. Condoleezza Rice, the outgoing Secretary of State, believe that new team in Washington may have little choice but to follow the structures in place already on a range of foreign policy issues including Iran.  We hope that with the differences in approach and with the promise of direct negotiations the chance for a resolution will improve.